Divine the Direction

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People tend to “switch sides” almost instantly these days; if the market drops a day or two, everyone’s a screaming ZH-obsessed bear, and if the market rises during a single session, everyone becomes a here-come-new-highs Yellen-lovin’ bull. But take a step back and see what the NQ has been doing the past few weeks, and I think you’ll see that, on the whole, the intermediate-term direction is pretty clear.

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Insurance Casualities

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I’m going to be traveling all day on this Good Friday to visit a business in which I invested back in 2005. The aforementioned business looked to be heading into bankruptcy in 2007, but it turned itself around, and it is thriving now. I haven’t visited them in a few years, so I’m eager to see how much they’ve grown.

Anyway, I thought I’d just put up a post of a particular sector on which I’m cheerfully bearish: insurance. One look at the likes of Aflac during the financial crisis shows how interesting things can get: (more…)

Big Pictures: Stocks, Gold and the Miners

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Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.

US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the ‘real’ price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.

It is easy to say ‘I am bullish in the big picture’ (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player. (more…)

Wait For It…….

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All four days this week have been about recovering from last week’s action; I suspect/hope the unraveling can resume on schedule next week. Aligned with that, Japan is setting itself up for a bigger fall than we’ve seen for a while. If DXJ can fight its way back to about $47, I think it will provide the proverbial lay-up shot of a shorting opportunity.

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