From Resistance to Support

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After the explosive eight-day surge in the markets (following the bottom last Wednesday), a whole cache of ultrashort ETF charts looks very interesting on the long side. Below are just a couple of examples, and take note how cleanly resistance has magically changed into support. Next week, particularly Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, will clarify whether these “long” positions (although actually short the market) are as profitable as they might appear.

1024-TWM (more…)

Pandora’s Box

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This whole week has been a vomit comet, so it’s hard to make any generalizations about the current market, so I’ll just mention individual stocks. Besides AMZN, another nice winner for me today was Pandora. The chart was so-so, but intuitively (and this is a bit unusual for me to use anything but the chart as a rationale) I felt with all the effort Apple was putting into Internet radio, Pandora might not be in a great spot. Whatever the reason, the stock is tumbling, and I’m hanging on to the short.


The Air Is Getting Thin

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SPX broke above the daily middle band yesterday and tested the 100 DMA. More importantly though, the high yesterday was within a couple of points of testing the weekly middle band. Given that today is Friday that may well be formidable resistance today, and while I’d quite like to see a test of yesterday’s high today, I’m very doubtful about seeing a move significantly higher. This is closing resistance, so only the closing price today is important for that. We could see a move somewhat higher intraday. SPX weekly chart:

141024 SPX Weekly Middle Band Test


Short Setups If This Is The End Of The Dead Cat Bounce

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The bears have been ripped to shreds since last Wednesday’s bottom and have been no where to be found since then. However, despite the huge bounce, there hasn’t been any significant repairs to the charts and the V-Shape bounce lingers an overdone dead cat bounce.

With that said, I don’t recommend getting heavily short here. If you want a starter position to counter some of the existing longs you have, then so be it, that’s not a bad idea. But slowly dip your toes in the water here if your desire is to get short.

As for me, I actually wouldn’t mind seeing another downturn emerge here. The trade setups are amazing to the short side as you will see from the short setups below. (more…)